2025 Tour De France Stage 11 Predictions: Betting Tips on Stage Winner, H2H & Latest Odds
- Written by David Bet
Stage 11 of the 2025 Tour De France is a 157 km run that loops away from and then back towards Toulouse around mostly flat roads. Will it finish in a reduced bunch sprint or will a breakaway succeed? Find here our Tour De France Stage 11 predictions, latest odds, expert tips on Winner, Top 3 & Head to Head, bonus codes & free bets!
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TOUR DE FRANCE STAGE 11 BETTING PREVIEW
Wednesday's stage starts and ends in Toulouse. The profile is mostly flat but trickier, as there are five categorised climbs in the menu, four of them coming inside the final 46km.
Categorised Climbs:
- Côte de Castelnau-d'Estrétefonds: 1.4 kilometers at 6.6% (4th cat.)
- Côte de Montsignard: 1.6 kilometers at 5.3% (4th cat.)
- Côte de Corronsac: 900 meters at 6.7% (4th cat.)
- Côte de Vieille-Toulouse: 1.3 kilometers at 6.8% (4th cat.)
- Montée Pech David: 800 meters at 12.4% (3rd cat.)
Many of them are short but steep. With just over 15 kilometers to go, for instance, the riders face the Côte de Vieille-Toulouse (1.3 kilometers at 6.8%).
The final ascent, the category three Côte de Pech David, comes just 9km from the finish line, and features a vicious 12.4% gradient. Even if it does last only 800m, it is steep enough for puncheurs to launch attacks and drop the pure sprinters.
Stage 11 Favourites
The main question is "Will Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan, the two fastest sprinters of the Tour, survive a 800m climb at 12%, or recover the gap in the final descent and the few flat kilometers after the Côte de Pech David?".
We believe they may both struggle on a such nasty average. Hence, team Lidl-Trek will likely unleash Thibau Nys, Quinn Simmons or Jasper Stuyven, who all have decent climbing skills. On the other hand, team Soudal Quick-Step will focus on protecting Remco Evenepoel.
The lumpy finale will surely favor riders such as Biniam Girmay and Mathieu Van Der Poel while it should be a quiet day for GC Contenders. Jhonatan Narvaez is another rider that would be able to win on a such profile, but the Colombian could be requied to stay close to his captain Tadej Pogaçar. The same applies to UAE's Tim Wellens and Team Visma Lease-A-Bike's Wout Van Aert. The Belgian is improving and sooner or later should also try to go for personal glory..
Dark horses?
Kaden Groves, Danny Van Poppel, Arnaud de Lie and Bryan Coquard are other sprinters with good climbing skills and could have a big say in a course like this.
As for puncheurs, the likes of Julian Alaphilippe, Kevin Vauquelin, Romain Gregoire, Axel Laurance, Tobias Lund Andresen, Anthony Turgis, Fred Wright and Oscar Onley are the possible contenders.
In case of winning breakaway, Ben Healy should be able to retain his yellow jersey but we don't expect an attack from the Irishman, while his team-mates Kasper Asgreen and Neilson Powless will go for the stage win.
Possible escapees with the potential to win the stage are Marc Hirschi, Matej Mohoric, Pablo Castrillo, Alex Aranburu, Tobias Halland Johannessen, Vincenzo Albanese, Ivan Romeo, Simone Velasco, Sergio Higuita and Joseph Blackmore.
TOUR DE FRANCE STAGE 11 PREDICTIONS
The section below contains our experts' betting tips on the Tour De France Stage 11 (Winner, Top 3 and Head To Head recommended bets).
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