Next Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Be The Next UK PM?

  • Written by Amos Halfon
Next Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Be The Next UK PM?

While what’s currently going on is far from a political matter, all eyes are on the Prime Minister as he does his utmost to protect the British public. It will, and is ultimately influencing who could take the keys to Number 10 when it comes to the next election. Odds on the next Prime Minister are always available with major bookmakers such as William Hill and Paddy Power and they make for an interesting read at present. Below you’ll find the latest Next UK Prime Minister betting odds from some of the top bookmakers around. Who will be the next PM? Find here how to bet on the Next Prime Minister!

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Why Boris Johnson could be replaced as PM  

Boris Johnson is facing one of the most politically perilous moments of his premiership as it has emerged that the PM was involved in a series of No 10 drinks parties (labelling each of them as "work event"), held in the midst of England’s lockdowns to combat the coronavirus.

Bookmakers have shortened the odds on Boris Johnson being replaced as Prime Minister following outrage over his attendance at a “bring your own booze” party  at the height of lockdown, especially now that news of two more rule-breaking Downing Street events have emerged, as well as allegations that No 10 staff were pressured to delete evidence of illegal parties in Downing Street.

Boris Johnson, who also apologised to Buckingham Palace, after the reports of two parties held on the eve of Prince Philip’s socially-distanced funeral, is now odds-on to be replaced this year according to the best betting sites in the UK.

He survived a confidence vote on 6th June 2022, but a large rebellion in his Conservative Party leaves him with a struggle to win back support. In fact, All 359 Conservative MPs voted. 211 were for Boris and 148 against him.

He is now the Cabinet minister with the lowest approval rating, according to members of his own party. That result has raised serious questions over how long he will remain Prime Minister. And even Boris Johnson's allies have warned that there could be an early general election very soon.

Mr Johnson addressed his mutinous troops after the Confidence vote and told them successful 'fratricide' would gift Keir Starmer and his party an election win.

The latest crisis centers on a Conservative lawmaker who was a minister in Mr. Johnson’s government, Chris Pincher. Last week, Mr. Pincher quit his government post after a drunken night during which he is accused of having groped two men. Later it emerged that there had been similar previous allegations against him.

For days, the government insisted that Mr. Johnson had no knowledge of any prior accusations when he appointed Mr. Pincher.

Then on Monday, Downing Street acknowledged that the prime minister had known of one accusation, from Mr. Pincher’s days at the Foreign Office

More than 30 resignations were submitted to the government on early July, including letters from cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid as well as from parliamentary private secretaries.

Even if next general election is not due to take place until 2024, UK will have a new Prime Minister shortly.

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A General Election could seemingly be forced through at any time over the coming months and years, and for us punters that means the chance to bet on the next Prime Minister.

Study our guide to find all you need to know about the market, including how to play it and which bookmakers offer next Prime Minister betting.

What Is Next Prime Minister Betting? 

Betting on the Next Prime Minister is relatively simple concept to understand and is a wager on the person you believe will take over the keys at 10 Downing Street.

The market is offered by a number of bookies and works in the same way you’d bet on the next manager of a club in football betting or any outright bet on the market.

This will usually exclude the current Prime Minister, so in this instance you wouldn’t be able to bet on Boris Johnson. If Johnson was to run in the next election and win, the odds you’d bet on would still be in play until a new leader took charge of the country.

How To Place A Next Prime Minister Bet 

Placing a bet on the Next Prime Minister market is as simple as betting on any other futures market and can be done in a few simple steps.

You’ll find the market within the Politics or Specials section of a bookmakers site and the market will include a list of Politicians and their odds on becoming the next PM.

All you need to do is then select the person you wish to bet on and place your bets...

  1. Log in or sign up to an online bookmaker
  2. Head to the Next UK Prime Minister odds
  3. Select the Politician you wish to bet on
  4. Enter your stake in your betslip and place your bet

One thing to be aware of is the market is based upon the next permanent Prime Minister and doesn’t take into account Acting Prime Minister roles.

So for example, if Boris Johnson stepped down from the role as PM and Michael Gove temporary stood in while an election for the next Tory leader was held, you wouldn’t receive a payout for Gove unless he was then made the permanent Prime Minister.

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Next Prime Minister Favorites - Who Will Replace Mr Johnson?

Eleven candidates announced leadership bids but only eight got the required backing of 20 MPs needed to get through the first round on Tuesday 12th July 2022. That was whittled down to six following the first round of voting on Wednesday evening, when Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Jeremy Hunt were eliminated from the race.

We’re taking a look at the next UK Prime Minister odds to see who the leading contenders are to replace him.

Penny Mordaunt 7/8

A prominent Brexiteer who took a more pragmatic approach while serving in Theresa May's government, Penny Mordaunt is now odds-on favorite in the running to become the next PM. She is part of the conservative party and is currently serving as Minister of State for Trade Policy. Ms Mordaunt made waves in 2019 as the UK's first female defence secretary before being fired by Mr Johnson shortly after becoming PM.

  • Coral betting bonusPenny Mordaunt 7/8Bet

Rishi Sunak - 3/1

Previous favourite Rishi Sunak is now battling for his political career. He was very popular thanks to his thanks to his furlough scheme.

It’s not uncommon for ministers to make the step from chancellor to prime minister but an increase in national insurance payments, cuts in the universal credit and the current cost of living crisis brought on by a hike in energy bills left Mr Sunak open to criticism.

His odds were drifting since Mr. Sunak as also fined for attending an illegal party while he has also faced significant criticism over the tax status of his wife. But now odds are shortening since Rishi Sunak decided to quit over a fresh scandal that once again raised questions about Mr. Johnson’s judgment and honesty.

Despite his image, some moderate Tories still believed he was the best candidate. But it would be difficult for him to run when he, too, has been fined by police over Partygate.

In sharp contrast to other candidates, he is sticking to his guns in resisting tax cuts, arguing it would fuel rising prices.

The bookies expect a closer run race next time out and Mr. Sunak could be worth a punt with such odds.

  • Ladbrokes Betting BonusRishi Sunak 3/1Bet

Liz Truss - 4/1

Liz Truss has held various positions under three Tory prime ministers and is one of the most interesting Conservative contenders. The foreign secretary has rocketed up the ministerial ladder during Johnson’s reign and has a favourable popularity rating among Tory members.

She has had to defend Tory tax rises but spoke out against a windfall tax on oil giants and insists she is a low-tax Tory.

Ms Truss is a 4/1 shot in the next UK PM odds.

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Kemi Badenoch - 20/1

Former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch has been an MP since 2017. Grown up in Nigeria, She has promised to cut the size of the state and lead a "limited government focused on essentials". Her monetary policy will focus on tackling inflation.

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Tom Tugendhat 60/1

Tom Tugendhat was a complete outlier last year. He is a former military man who stormed the polls since he saw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coming long before Johnson did and was critical of the UK’s disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. In his campaign launch speech he promised to reverse the increase in national insurance contributions, reduce fuel duty by 10p a litre and equalise funding across all English regions.

  • Paddy Power Betting BonusTom Tugendhat 60/1Bet

Suella Braverman - 100/1

Suella Braverman confirmed she would be running after announcing her intentions before the prime minister resigned. The Attorney General, who was first elected as an MP in 2015, has the backing of Brexit diehard and former minister Steve Baker, who had previously been considering his own bid. She has promised "rapid and large tax cuts" to ease inflation.

  • spreadexSuella Braverman 100/1Bet

Best of the Rest 

Sajid Javid has significantly dropped in te betting and is now offered at 250/1. Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace is 12/1 with several bookies, while Cabinet minister Michael Gove is further out.

Keir Starmer is around 100/1, same odds for Ben Wallace and Nadhim Zahawi.

Further out, former foreign secretary Dominic Raab and Home Secretary Priti Patel have an outside shot at the top job.

Keir Starmer - 100/1

The new Labour leader has impressed many during his campaign to be elected the leader of the party and is now 100/1 to take the top job with Coral.

The MP for Holborn & St Pancras is a former human rights barrister and was very much on the side of Remain during the EU Referendum.

He’s struck a chord with many Labour voters and is tipped to do much the same when it comes to the next election, something which Corbyn failed to do.

His strategy is clear - for every day that an unpopular Johnson is in power, the more Labour’s chances of winning the next election.

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Ben Wallace - 100/1

Ben Wallace is a Tory MP and former soldier currently serving as Secretary of State for Defence, which he has done since July 2019. His profile has grown significantly during the war in Ukraine, during which he has been one of the strongest international proponents of arming the Ukrainians.

Mr. Wallace is currently priced at 100/1 with Parimatch.

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Nadhim Zahawi - 100/1

Nadhim Zahawi, who accepted the role of chancellor after Rishi Sunak resigned, is among the favorites now and one of the delegates set to convince Boris Johnson to quit. He had a remarkable life story before being named Vaccines Minister during Covid, then Education Secretary. He co-founded the leading pollster YouGov before being elected to Parliament in 2010.

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Jeremy Hunt - 250/1

Jeremy Hunt is considered the most likely alternative to Johnson. He is the centre-left option for Conservative members if there is an appetite to shift away from the populist politics of the Johnsonian era. Mr. Hunt is former health secretary under David Cameron who oversaw arguably the deepest cuts to the NHS budget in three generations.

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Michael Gove  - 500/1

Michael Gove’s odds have risen in the last few weeks and is the current Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations. He’s served many more roles as part of the Conservative government and will be one of the main contenders should the party seek a new leader.

He currently lies behind Jeremy Hunt, but ahead of the likes of Matt Hancock and Priti Patel, none of whom have shone themselves in any great light over the last few months.

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Sajid Javid - 250/1

Former health secretary Sajid Javid sensationally quit his job after the Pincher scandal, sparking a wave of Tory resignations and plunging Johnson's government into turmoil. That seemed to signal he was planning another leadership bid after losing to Johnson in 2019.

On 12th July Mr. Javid made the announcement he has pulled out of the race to succeed Boris Johnson as Tory leader and his odds drifted up to 250/1.

  • William Hill Betting BonusSajid Javid 250/1Bet

Dominic Raab - 200/1

Much further from the leading two contenders is Dominic Raab who is at 20/1 with Betfair.
is deputy prime minister who unsuccessfully ran against Johnson in the 2019 leadership battle. He was foreign secretary until September last year when the botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan triggered a Taliban takeover of the country, under his watch.

  • Sporting Index spread betting with no depositDominic Raab 200/1Bet

Current Next UK Prime Minister Odds 

With a General Election currently looking likely over the coming year, the odds on the next Prime Minister are fluctuating regularly.

Below you’ll find the latest odds for the Next UK Prime Minister after Boris Johnson (updated on 14th July 2022).

Next PM Odds

  • Coral betting bonusPenny Mordaunt 7/8Bet
  • Ladbrokes Betting BonusRishi Sunak 3/1Bet
  • Betfred Betting BonusLiz Truss 4/1Bet
  • Betfair Sportsbook BonusKim Badenoch20/1Bet
  • Paddy Power Betting BonusTom Tugendhat 60/1Bet
  • spreadexSuella Braverman 100/1Bet
  • parimatch free betBen Wallace 100/1Bet
  • spreadexNadim Zahawi 100/1Bet
  • Coral betting bonusKeir Starmer 100/1Bet
  • William Hill Betting BonusEd Davey100/1Bet
  • Betfred Betting BonusGillian Keegan100/1Bet
  • Sporting Index spread betting with no depositDominic Raab200/1Bet
  • Ladbrokes Betting BonusJeremy Hunt 250/1Bet

When is the next general election?

At time of writing, the next election is still scheduled for May 2024 under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, but this will soon be repealed by the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill.

What happen if Mr Johnson resigns?

If Boris Johnson resigns this will trigger a Conservative leadership contest, with the winner taking over both the party and the position of Prime Minister.

if Mr Johnson refuses to step down he could be forced out, but only by his fellow Conservative MPs.

A survey by research firm Redfield & Wilton found that 43 per cent of adults surveyed said Chancellor Rishi Sunak would make a better prime minister than Mr Johnson. Ms Truss also has a good percentage of favorables.

There is the chance of a snap election to be called if the sitting government decides to do so. Anyway, the Tories have been suffering a slump in the polls, so may not be keen to call an election just yet.

Other Political Betting Markets 

There are a number of other Politics betting markets which are playable across a range of bookmakers. These include:

What Month Will The Current PM Cease To Be Prime Minister?

This market is a wager on the month in which the PM will leave her post as the British Prime Minister. Selections are offered as the month and the year, for example November 2022, April 2023 etc.

First to Leave the Cabinet

This is a market that allows you to bet on the next member of the government to leave the cabinet. This is simply betting on a person who you believe will be next to go.

Year Boris Johnson is Replaced as Prime Minister

This is not a bet on who will replace Boris Johnson but a a wager on the year in which the current Prime Minister will leave his role and be replaced at No. 10. Paddy Power and other betting sites are currently offering odds on the following years:

  • 2022
  • 2023
  • 2024 or Later

A No Confidence Vote In The Government By The End Of the Year

Boris Johnson (just like Theresa May) survived a No Convince vote in early June and this market is backing a simple Yes or No as to whether there will be another vote before the end of 2022. The result of the vote is irrelevant.

Next General Election: Most Seats

This bet is one that doesn’t focus on individuals but rather parties and which one will occupy the most seats following the next General Election.

Next Conservative Leader (or Next Tory Leader)

This is a bet on the person who you believe will be the next leader of the Conservative party after Boris Johnson. You can find Next Tory Leader odds on most UK bookies, including Coral, Boylesports and QuinnBet.

Next Labour Leader

This is a wager on the politician you believe will replace Keir Starmer as the next leader of the Labour Party.

Previous General Election Results

To help you with political betting and placing a wager on the Next Prime Minister, below you’ll find a full list of the most recent General Elections and which way the result went.

  • 2019: Boris Johnson (Conservative)
  • 2017: Theresa May (Conservative)
  • 2015: David Cameron (Conservative)
  • 2010: David Cameron (Conservative Coalition with Liberal Democrats)
  • 2005: Tony Blair (Labour)
  • 2001: Tony Blair (Labour)

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Which Bookmakers Offer Next Prime Minister Betting? 

Many bookmakers offer Politics markets (approved by the UK Gambling Commission), ranging from Next UK Prime Minister odds, to No Confidence votes and many different Brexit markets and Great Britain international politics odds.

Paddy Power is one of the more popular bookmakers offering a high number of Politics markets, while you’ll also find them in many of the major bookmakers offerings too such as BetVictor, William Hill and Betway.

You can find all our favourite new bookmakers on our new betting sites page, along with complete reviews and fantastic sign-up offers.

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