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Tour De France Stage 15 Predictions: Betting Tips On Winner & H2H, Latest Odds (20.7.2025)

  • Written by David Bet
Tour De France Stage 15 Predictions: Betting Tips On Winner & H2H, Latest Odds (20.7.2025)

Stage 15 of the 2025 Tour de France is a hilly 169.3 km run from Muret to Carcassone. Featuring three categorised climbs and a flat finish, the route is perfect both for fast finishers and a breakaway. This post contains our Tour De France Stage 15 predictions, latest odds, our recommended bets on Winner, Top 3 & Head to Head, free bets and exclusive promotions.


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TOUR DE FRANCE STAGE 15 BETTING PREVIEW 


Thymen Arensman brought some joy to our experts and team Ineos Grenadiers by winning a brutal stage 14 from Pau to the summit finish at Luchon-Superbagneres, as we predicted at 28/1.

The third Sunday in the Tour De France is a transitional stage, but with a bit of a twist.

The first 70 kilometers of the stage are completely flat. Most of the total 2,400m of climbing is concentrated in the second half of the route:

  • Côte de Saint-Ferréol (Category 3, 1.7 km at 7%).
  • Côte de Sorèze (Category 3, 6.2 km at 5.5%)
  • Pas du Sant (Category 2, 2.9 km at 10.2%)


The Pas du Sant (2.9km at 10%) comes with 40km to go. Here we expect the strongest riders of the breakaway launching the decisive attack.

A long descent towards the south leads to a flat finish in Carcassonne..


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Stage 15 Favourites

Sprinters who don’t mind a bit of climbing will be the possible winners here. Maybe, the Pas du Sant is too steep for pure sprinters like Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier and Kaden Groves but they will have enough space to regroup with the front group.

Anyway, riders like Mathieu Van Der Poel, Wout Van Aert and Biniam Girmay look perfect for this kind of stage. Among these three, Van Der Poel has the upper hand here but Girmay is also fighting for the green jersey and Van Aert finished 2nd in the stage won by Jonathan Milan in the opening week.

Dark horses from a breakaway?

Other fast riders with good climbing skills are Arnaud De Lie, Kasper Asgren, Fred Wright, Vincenzo Albanese, Danny Van Poppel and Jasper Stuyven.

Considering how the peloton will be tired after three days in the Pyrenees, we can't exclude an early breakaway getting enough gap to go to the finish line.

Van Der Poel, of course, could be one of the promoters of the early breakaway and other possibile escapees are Magnus Cort, Axel Laurence, Julian Alaphilippe, Quinn Simmons, Mauro Schmid, Ben Healy, Matej Mohoric, Thibau Nys, Bruno Armirail and Neilson Powless.

Brave bettors can consider to have a punt on other long-shots such as Victor Campenaerts, Romain Gregoire, Davide Ballerini, Jonas Abrahamsen and Samuel Watson.

Stage 15 - Tour De France 2025

TOUR DE FRANCE STAGE 15 PREDICTIONS

The section below contains our experts' betting tips on the Tour De France Stage 15 (Winner, Top 3 and Head To Head recommended bets).


Stage 15 WinnerMathieu Van Der Poel
 
BEST ODDS
8/1
Stage 15 WinnerQuinn Simmons
 
BEST ODDS
18/1
Stage 15 WinnerBiniam Girmay
 
BEST ODDS
40/1
Head To HeadMagnus Cort Nielsen to beat Vincenzo Albanese
 
BEST ODDS
4/6
Head To HeadDanny Van Poppel to beat Tobias Lund Andresen
 
BEST ODDS
5/6
Head To HeadBiniam Girmay to beat Jonathan Milan
 
BEST ODDS
4/11

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