Menu
Betfair Live Casino Free Chips

Expected Goals Explained - How Does xG Work?

  • Written by David Bet
  • Share  
In football we think we can predict the outcome in games. In fact, the punter in us probably reckons we can predict the number of goals, goalscorer and timings. Of course, that’s almost impossible, but what isn’t impossible is technology doing it via the increasingly popular Expected Goals (xG) metric. It’s every punters dream and is making betting on the goals market one well worth playing. But what is Expected Goals, how does it work and how can it help you?

What Is Expected Goals?   

Expected Goals, or xG as it’s commonly known, is a metric that helps predict the number of goals a team will score in a match.

The system takes into a large range of data and information to make their prediction. This will factor in a variety of goal scoring trends to produce a figure, which is ultimately the number of goals they’re predicted to score in that game.

The algorithm takes into account both teams in order to come up with a figure, which will usually come in the form of a decimal.

Ladbrokes Betting Bonus

How Does Expected Goals Work?   

Expected Goals is perfect for using in football betting and uses a very sophisticated algorithm produced by Opta.

Using their own vault of data, which analyses thousands upon thousands of shots taken and goals scored, they take into account players, how the shot was taken, how it was assisted, the angles, distances and much, much more.

Particularly players abilities aren’t taken into account and is purely based on the statistics in the algorithm.

This will then be turned into a number, the number of goals expected to be scored.

For example, let’s use a game between Crystal Palace and Tottenham. xG may place the number of goals for Crystal Palace at 0.32 and Tottenham at 1.05.

This would give the edge to Spurs when it comes to goals scored, and should C.Palace be favourite in the Match Result market, it may be worth finding the value in the away team.

Is It Worth Acknowledging Goals Expected? 

Goals expected is a revolutionary statistic that is certainly worth taking into account when it comes to betting.

It adds science to the predictions and punditry and can generally provide accurate estimations of how a game will go.

The Explained Goals market can help with a wide range of football betting markets, including the following:

Match Result

As mentioned in the example above, the Goals Expected metric can often show a contrast to the match result odds which can help you find value in a market.

You can certainly use it as a statistic to back up or move you away from your initial thoughts.

Goals

Obviously it will help you in the goals market, with it being a useful tool when determining whether you should bet on the likes of BTTS and Total Goals, whether that be team or total.

Naturally if two teams are playing each other with high xGs such as 1.70 or 2+, then it’s likely they’re both going to score and well worth dabbling in the BTTS market.

betzest no deposit free bet

18+. New customers only. $/€5 no deposit bonus for mobile verified customers only. Minimum deposit $/€10. Maximum bonus $/€50. Wagering requirements on winnings from bonus x15. Full T&Cs apply.

Why Are Goals Expected Figures Decimals? 

Obviously a team can’t score 0.72 goals in a game, that’s not how football works. But that is how the algorithm works.

You simple have to view it as a case of rounding to the nearest full number. So it Chelsea, for example had an xG of 1.64, their predicted number of goals would be 2.

Equally if they had an xG if 1.22, their predicted number of goals would be just 1.

Things To Note About Goals Expected 

With any kind of metric it isn’t always going to work. You won’t see a profit every single time you use it.

While it is a sophisticated mathematical equation, Football is not. Anything can happen in football, from a player getting sent off in the early stages of a tie, to a goalkeeping error that 99 times out of 100 wouldn’t happen.

Additionally, the stats can get it wrong. Games in which a team is dominant with a number of shots on target without scoring can increase their xG, so it is always good to be wary and use it as a tool to aid your betting rather than one to determine it.

lvbet no deposit free bet

£5 No Deposit free bet on registration. Geo restrictions apply. 10x wagering requirements on odds of minimum 3.4 (1.75). Max winnings capped at £50. Betting markets restrictions apply. Full T&Cs apply. 18+.

Where To Play Using xG 

You’ll generally be able to play anywhere with the help of Goals Expected as all major online bookies have the football markets that benefit most from the stats.

The likes of Paddy Power and William Hill have a huge range of goals odds, ideal for playing with this, all of which can be aided even further by a fantastic free bet offer!

The following are the best free bets selected for you by the BetAndSkill team. Choose your favourite offer, click the 'Claim' button and enjoy your betting bonus in few simple steps!
  •  
    LADBROKES
    Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets - Bonus code 20FREE
    18+ New UK+IRE customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 4 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
    Claim
  •  
    BET365
    up to £100 in bet credits
    New Customers only. Up to £100* in Bet Credits. Sign up, deposit £5* or more to your account and bet365 will match your qualifying deposit in Bet Credits when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
    Claim
  •  
    BETFRED
    Bet £10, get £30 + 30 free spins
    Only available to new customers from UK & Northern Ireland. You must stake £10 or more at single/cumulative odds of Evens (2.0) or greater on your first bet. Free bet balance of £30 credited within 48 hours of your first bet being settled. Free Bets expire after 7 days. E-Wallet restrictions apply. Minimum 5 game rounds. Game restrictions apply. Maximum 30 Free Spins on selected games. Free Spins expire after 7 days. Full T&Cs apply.
    Claim
  •  
    BETFAIR
    Up to £100 welcome bonus
    New customers only, receive a free bet up to the value of your first qualifying bet. Minimum stake €5, minimum odds 1/5 (1.2). If your first bet is an accumulator, at least one selection must meet the min odds requirement. Qualifying bet must be placed in first 30 days of account opening. Offer is only available to customers who deposit using Debit/Credit or Paypal. Max free bet €50 – valid for 7 days. T&s apply.
    Claim
  •  
    10BET
    50% up to £100. Use code: WB10BET
    New Customers; Min. deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Bonus amount is 50% of deposit up to £100; 6x deposit and bonus turnover (min. odds 3/5 on singles and 2/5 per selection on acca bets), in 30 days, for bonus release; Some bet types don’t contribute to turnover; Withdrawal before turnover results in bonus cancellation; Terms apply; 18+.
    Claim
  •  
    BETVICTOR
    Bet £5, get £30 free bets
    New Customers Only. Deposit via Credit/Debit card only and bet £5 @ odds 2.0+ within 7 days of registering; Cashed out bets excluded. Get 2x £10 free bets, valid for set types (1 @ odds 2.0+ or greater) & a £10 casino bonus, wagered 40x to withdraw; Bonuses expire in 7 days; Geographical restrictions apply. Click for T&C’s. 18+|begambleaware.org
    Claim
  •  
    BETWAY
    €/£30 free bet bonus
    New customers only. Min qualifying bet £10. 100% Free Bet credited to Free Bet Balance upon a successful deposit. To activate the Free Bet a customer MUST place bets totalling the value of their 1st deposit (up to £30). Min odds 3/4 (single), 2/5 (EW), 2/5 (system bets) or greater. 1x Wagering. Free Bet expires after 7 days. Offer is only available to customers who deposit using Debit/Credit or Paypal. 18+.begambleaware.org. T&Cs Apply.
    Claim
T&Cs apply. 18+. Gamble responsibly.

LATEST FREE BETS & EXCLUSIVE OFFERS

Find below the latest free bets launched by our trusted UK betting sited and European bookmakers. Get also exclusive welcome offers by entering our special bonus codes:
  •  
    LVBET
    £5 No Deposit Bonus
    £5 No Deposit free bet on registration. Geo restrictions apply. 10x wagering requirements on odds of minimum 3.4 (1.75). Max winnings capped at £50. Betting markets restrictions apply. Full T&Cs apply. 18+.
    Claim
  •  
    ENERGY BET
    £5 No Deposit Free Bet
    18+. Promotion is only valid for new UK customers who registered using special promotion links and banners. Wagering requirements 7x turnover of the bonus amount, only accumulator bets with final odds of minimum 3/4. Minimum odds for each event 1/4. Players can withdraw up to £50 from the bonus amount granted after the wagering requirements have been met. Bonus valid for 30 days. T&Cs apply.
    Claim
  •  
    FANSBET
    5% Cashback on Turnover up to £20
    Min deposit £20 (no Skrill/Neteller), cashback capped ad £20. Max bet £100. Only valid on sports betting with min odds 1.75 (3/4). Must wager £400 for full cashback. T&Cs apply. 18+. Please bet responsibly.
    Claim
  •  
    MOPLAY
    Bet £10, Get £30 In Free Bets
    Bet £10+ at odds 1.50+, get 2 x £15 free bets, 7 day expiry, credited after first bet settles. Opt in, 1 x new customer. Bet type, Free Bet restrictions and T&C’s Apply.
    Claim
  •  
    JETBULL
    100% bonus up to €/£100. Exclusive!
    18+ begambleaware.org. Please bet responsibly.
    Claim
  •  
    MANSION BET
    50% up to £50 (Bonus Code: MB50)
    New customers only. Real Money Deposit Required. Credit or Debit Card only. Deposit & Bonus amount must be wagered 6 times (min. odds 4/5) prior to bonus funds and associated winnings becoming withdrawable. 18+. gambleaware.org
    Claim
  •  
    ROYAL PANDA
    £20 free sports bet
    18+. New customers. Min deposit & cumulative bet amount £20. Min odds 2.0. Free Bet credited upon full settlement of bets, may only bet used on event with min odds of 2.0 and in single transactions. Winnings added as withdrawable funds. Free bet stake not returned. Bonuses expire after 90 days.
    Claim
  •  
    TIPBET
    €5 No Deposit Bonus - Promo Code: BAS
    Claim
T&Cs apply. 18+. begambleaware.org.

SHARE IT WITH YOUR FRIENDS
Let your friends know about this article! Share it on your favourite social media!



User Rating: no ratingno ratingno ratingno ratingno rating / 0

Poor  Best 

Sections

Betting Tips

Free Bets

Follow Us